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Excerpts

Contents

Introduction: Present at the Creation

Part I: INSIDE THE NEW COLD WAR
Strategy and Management

Chapter 1. A New and Unnecessary Cold War Takes Shape

The End of History and the Burgers of Beijing
The Great Leap Backward: From China Boom to China Threat
The Ironies of History
Toward Resolving the Cold War

Chapter 2. The Eagle and the Dragon (I): From Clipper Ships to Tiananmen Square

West Meets East
Missionaries and Demonizers
The Cultural Revolution in China -- and America
Playing the China Card
Trading with the Enemy
Deng Xiaoping in a Stetson
1989: A Tale of Two Squares
"To Get Rich Is Glorious!"
The Lure of the China Market

Chapter 3. The Eagle and the Dragon (II): To the Brink

Is It Economics, Stupid? Or Stupid Economics?
The Problem with the 800-Pound Gorilla
"Sino-American Relations Are in Free Fall"
Brinksmanship in the Straits of Taiwan
The China That Says No
The Left and the Right
Coffee or Tea?
Rethinking and Rethinking Again
Talk, Talk, Fight, Fight
The Context Is Crucial, and That Context Is Progress

Chapter 4. Competing and Cooperating with the World's New Economic Superpower

1. China Ascendant: From Main Street to Wall Street, from the Boardroom to the Beltway
2. Are the Chinese Stealing American Jobs?
3. The Great Global Game of Go
4. Piracy of Digital Bits
5. It's Not Just China: Here Comes the New G-7
6. Eating Big Macs Doesn't Make It McChina
7. Toward the "Confucian Social Market"
8. "China Could Be Like Japan on Steroids"
9. A Different Kind of "World's Largest Economy"

Chapter 5. Threat or Challenge?

Of Divas, Tenors, and Peking Opera
The "China Threat" Reconsidered

China as Military Threat to the United States
China Has Declared the United States Its Enemy
China as an Expansionist Power in Asia
China Behaves Aggressively and Provocatively Toward Taiwan
China Is a Rogue Nation That Refuses to Play by International Rules
China Is a Fascist Dictatorship and the World's Leading Human Rights Violator

Alternatives, Anyone?
The Myth of the Allies

PART II: BENCHMARKING CHINA

The Shanghai Allusion

Chapter 6. Of Bulls, Bears, and Being Moderately Bullish

The Bulls Have Their Run
The Bears Have Reasons to Growl
Our Own View

Chapter 7. China's Burdens

The Burden of Scale
The Burden of Nature and Geography
The Burden of History and Culture

Chapter 8. Impossible Problems -- and Possible Solutions

Winners and Losers
"The Center Has Its Measures but the Provinces Have Their Countermeasures"
Socialist Dreams, Capitalist Nightmares
Corruption: Back Door to Modern Capitalism?

Chapter 9. The Impulse Toward Unity: The Geopolitical Meaning of the "Middle Kingdom"

Maintaining Territorial Integrity

Chapter 10. "Crossing the River by Feeling the Stones"

The Yangzi Is Not the Mississippi
Looking in the Mirror
An Explosion Still Ahead?

PART III: JUMPING INTO THE SEA

A Thousand Rivers

Chapter 11. Zhang Wei: Finding Answers to the Question of Ownership

Chapter 12. Chen Ping: The Adventurer

Chapter 13. Feng Lun: Master Builder

The Lessons of Entrepreneurship

PART IV: GEOMANCING THE DRAGON

Wind and Water

Chapter 14. The Next Five Years: The Dragon at Home

Rites of Passage: The Post-Deng Succession Struggle, 1998-2002
After Jiang, What? Generational Politics, Chinese Style
Mao Is Back!?!?
"May You Live in Interesting Times"

Chapter 15. The Next Five Years: The Dragon Peers Out

Hong Kong: Life After 1997
Taiwan: A Contrarian View
Tibet: The Next Taiwan
Japan Plays Its China Card
Food for Thought Provocation: When China's Military Is Modernized

Chapter 16. Scenarios for the Twenty-first Century

The Overall Political-Economic Framework
The Great Wall in Ruins: The Search for New Values
Postcommunist Politics
The New Chinese Corporation and the Future of the State-Owned Enterprises
Big Versus Fast
"Connectivity": A Vision of China's Future Shape
The Three Gorges Dam: A Study in Environmental Politics

Chapter 17. Fast-Forward to the Future:
The Superdragon in 2024

Looking Back from 2024

PART V: BEYOND THE COLD WAR

The Past, the Future, and a Talk with Deng Xiaoping

Chapter 18. The New Shanghai Compact: Maximizing Opportunity, Minimizing Conflict

For a Policy of "Dynamic Engagement"
Starting Points
What Is Strength? What Is Weakness? What Is Leverage?
Specific Initiatives, Strategies, and Tactics
Toward a Partnership That Recognizes Differences:
The Shanghai Compact of 2002

Notes

Acknowledgments

Index